predictions at Brave New Films

5 Green Obama Dreams! | ZapRoot

2008-12-03T00:41:43Z

Yes, we can change. Obama wins the presidential election and here are our top 5 green dreams for 2009. Zero Pollutions Motors creates the car of the future, and it runs on air. And, check out the latest in Green Gadgets.

ZapRoot
http://zaproot.com/
Green Obama Dreams
http://boldurl.com/UCgwNh69

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Share your Obama Green Dreams
http://zaproot.ning.com/
Zero Pollution Motors
http://zeropollutionmotors.us/
TheDailyGreen - Air Car
http://thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/zero-pollution-motors-47080805
Gas 2.0 - Compressed Air Hybrid
http://gas2.org/2008/07/15/an-air-car-you-could-see-in-2009-zpms-106-mpg-compressed-air-hybrid/
Ecototality - Auto XPrize
http://ecotalitylife.greenoptions.com/2007/08/03/ecotality-automotive-x-prize-announces-first-31-competitors-for-100mpg-competition/
Zero Pollution Motors at NY Auto Show
http://autobloggreen.com/2008/03/22/new-york-2008-actually-its-not-called-the-air-car-qanda-with/
Triple Outlet
http://treehugger.com/files/2008/09/the-triplex-outlet.php
Cleantechnica - Energy Maps
http://cleantechnica.com/2008/10/13/making-high-resolution-renewable-energy-maps-free-to-the-masses/
Cleantechnica - Helix Turbine
http://cleantechnica.com/2008/10/15/helix-wind-releases-nifty-performance-testing-video/
Heineken Brick
http://psfk.com/2008/09/wobo-heinekens-beer-brick-combination.html
Ecoscraps - The Wash Up
http://ecoscraps.com/2008/09/11/wash-up-saves-water-and-space/
Cleantechnica - Husqvarna Solar Mower
http://cleantechnica.com/2008/10/25/husqvarnas-new-solar-powered-robot-will-mow-your-lawn/

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Re: Web Bot Predictions- October 7, 2008: New 9/11 ?

2008-11-13T15:24:51Z

Video Cam Direct Upload

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Bad Predictions

2008-12-03T00:20:28Z

Two guys take on all things political.

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Kevin Kelly: Predicting the next 5,000 days of the web

2008-10-24T16:28:36Z

www.ted.com At the 2007 EG conference, Kevin Kelly shares a fun stat: The World Wide Web, as we know it, is only 5,000 days old. Now, Kelly asks, how can we predict what's coming in the next 5,000 days?

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Authors@Google: Philip Tetlock

2008-10-27T15:31:43Z

Philip Tetlock is the Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His current research areas and interests include the following:

* Learning from experience: How do experts think about possible pasts (historical counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts)? And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations?
* Designing accountability systems: How do people cope with various types of accountability pressures and demands in their social world? When does accountability promote mindless conformity? Defensive bolstering of prior positions? Thoughtful self-critical analysis? ...
* De-biasing judgment and choice. How can organization structure incentives and accountability procedures be used to check common cognitive biases such as belief perseverance and over-confidence? What adverse side effects can such de-biasing efforts have on quality of decision-making?

Professor Tetlock came to Google to talk about his book, "Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?"

This event took place on August 24, 2006, as a part of the Authors@Google series.

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The Mother of All Specimen of Inaccurate Predictions

2008-04-23T20:38:00Z

I refer to none other than The Predictions for the Ensuing Year by Isaac Bickerstaff (t/n Jonathan Swift) as a satire on almanacs, the publishers thereof, and the people who fell for them.

The which is offered thus in its entire:

PREDICTIONS FOR THE YEAR 1708
Wherein the month, and day of the month are set down, the persons named, and the great actions and events of next year particularly related, as will come to pass.
Written to prevent the people of England from being farther imposed on by vulgar almanack-makers.
By Isaac Bickerstaff, Esq.
I have long consider'd the gross abuse of astrology in this kingdom, and upon debating the matter with myself, I could not possibly lay the fault upon the art, but upon those gross impostors, who set up to be the artists. I know several learned men have contended that the whole is a cheat; that it is absurd and ridiculous to imagine, the stars can have any influence at all upon human actions, thoughts, or inclinations: And whoever has not bent his studies that way, may be excused for thinking so, when he sees in how wretched a manner that noble art is treated by a few mean illiterate traders between us and the stars; who import a yearly stock of nonsense, lyes, folly, and impertinence, which they offer to the world as genuine from the planets, tho' they descend from no greater a height than their own brains.
I intend in a short time to publish a large and rational defence of this art, and therefore shall say no more in its justification at present, than that it hath been in all ages defended by many learned men, and among the rest by Socrates himself, whom I look upon as undoubtedly the wisest of uninspir'd mortals: To which if we add, that those who have condemned this art, though otherwise learned, having been such as either did not apply their studies this way, or at least did not succeed in their applications; their testimony will not be of much weight to its disadvantage, since they are liable to the common objection of condemning what they did not understand.
Nor am I at all offended, or think it an injury to the art, when I see the common dealers in it, the students in astrology, the philomaths, and the rest of that tribe, treated by wise men with the utmost scorn and contempt; but rather wonder, when I observe gentlemen in the country, rich enough to serve the nation in parliament, poring in Partridge's almanack, to find out the events of the year at home and abroad; not daring to propose a hunting-match, till Gadbury or he have fixed the weather.
I will allow either of the two I have mentioned, or any other of the fraternity, to be not only astrologers, but conjurers too, if I do not produce a hundred instances in all their almanacks, to convince any reasonable man, that they do not so much as understand common grammar and syntax; that they are not able to spell any word out of the usual road, nor even in their prefaces write common sense or intelligible English. Then for their observations and predictions, they are such as will equally suit any age or country in the world. This month a certain great person will be threatened with death or sickness. This the news-papers will tell them; for there we find at the end of the year, that no month passes without the death of some person of note; and it would be hard if it should be otherwise, when there are at least two thousand persons of not in this kingdom, many of them old, and the almanack-maker has the liberty of chusing the sickliest season of the year where he may fix his prediction. Again, This month an eminent clergyman will be preferr'd; of which there may be some hundreds half of them with one foot in the grave. Then such a planet in such a house shews great machinations, plots and conspiracies, that may in time be brought to light: After which, if we hear of any discovery, the astrologer gets the honour; if not, his prediction still stands good. And at last, God preserve King William from all his open and secret enemies, Amen. When if the King should happen to have died, the astrologer plainly foretold it; otherwise it passes but for the pious ejaculation of a loyal subject: Though it unluckily happen'd in some of their almanacks, that poor King William was pray'd for many months after he was dead, because it fell out that he died about the beginning of the year.
To mention no more of their impertinent predictions: What have we to do with their advertisements about pills and drink for the venereal disease? Or their mutual quarrels in verse and prose of Whig and Tory, wherewith the stars have little to do?
Having long observed and lamented these, and a hundred other abuses of this art, too tedious to repeat, I resolved to proceed in a new way, which I doubt not will be to the general satisfaction of the kingdom: I can this year produce but a specimen of what I design for the future; having employ'd most part of my time in adjusting and correcting the calculations I made some years past, because I would offer nothing to the world of which I am not as fully satisfied, as that I am now alive. For these two last years I have not failed in above one or two particulars, and those of no very great moment. I exactly foretold the miscarriage at Toulon, with all its particulars; and the loss of Admiral Shovel, tho' I was mistaken as to the day, placing that accident about thirty-six hours sooner than it happen'd; but upon reviewing my schemes, I quickly found the cause of that error. I likewise foretold the Battle of Almanza to the very day and hour, with the loss on both sides, and the consequences thereof. All which I shewed to some friends many months before they happened, that is, I gave them papers sealed up, to open at such a time, after which they were at liberty to read them; and there they found my predictions true in every article, except one or two, very minute.
As for the few following predictions I now offer the world, I forbore to publish them till I had perused the several almanacks for the year we are now enter'd on. I find them in all the usual strain, and I beg the reader will compare their manner with mine: And here I make bold to tell the world, that I lay the whole credit of my art upon the truth of these predictions; and I will be content, that Partridge, and the rest of his clan, may hoot me for a cheat and impostor, if I fail in any singular particular of moment. I believe, any man who reads this paper, will look upon me to be at least a person of as much honesty and understanding, as a common maker of almanacks. I do not lurk in the dark; I am not wholly unknown in the world; I have set my name at length, to be a mark of infamy to mankind, if they shall find I deceive them.
In one thing I must desire to be forgiven, that I talk more sparingly of home-affairs: As it will be imprudence to discover secrets of state, so it would be dangerous to my person; but in smaller matters, and that are not of publick consequence, I shall be very free; and the truth of my conjectures will as much appear from those as the other. As for the most signal events abroad in France, Flanders, Italy and Spain, I shall make no scruple to predict them in plain terms: Some of them are of importance, and I hope I shall seldom mistake the day they will happen; therefore, I think good to inform the reader, that I all along make use of the Old Style observed in England, which I desire he will compare with that of the news-papers, at the time they relate the actions I mention.
I must add one word more: I know it hath been the opinion of several of the learned, who think well enough of the true art of astrology, That the stars do only incline, and not force the actions or wills of men: And therefore, however I may proceed by right rules, yet I cannot in prudence so confidently assure the events will follow exactly as I predict them.
I hope I have maturely considered this objection, which in some cases is of no little weight. For example: A man may, by the influence of an over-ruling planet, be disposed or inclined to lust, rage, or avarice, and yet by the force of reason overcome that bad influence; and this was the case of Socrates: But as the great events of the world usually depend upon numbers of men, it cannot be expected they should all unite to cross their inclinations, from pursuing a general design, wherein they unanimously agree. Besides the influence of the stars reaches to many actions and events which are not any way in the power of reason; as sickness, death, and what we commonly call accidents, with many more, needless to repeat.
But now it is time to proceed to my predictions, which I have begun to calculate from the time that the Sun enters into Aries. And this I take to be properly the beginning of the natural year. I pursue them to the time that he enters Libra, or somewhat more, which is the busy period of the year. The remainder I have not yet adjusted, upon account of several impediments needless here to mention: Besides, I must remind the reader again, that this is but a specimen of what I design in succeeding years to treat more at large, if I may have liberty and encouragement.
My first prediction is but a trifle, yet I will mention it, to show how ignorant those sottish pretenders to astrology are in their own concerns: It relates to Partridge the almanack-maker; I have consulted the stars of his nativity by my own rules, and find he will infallibly die upon the 29th of March next, about eleven at night, of a raging fever; therefore I advise him to consider of it, and settle his affairs in time.
The month of April will be observable for the death of many great persons. On the 4th will die the Cardinal de Noailles, Archbishop of Paris: On the 11th the young Prince of Asturias, son to the Duke of Anjou: On the 14th a great peer of this realm will die at his country-house: On the 19th an old layman of great fame for learning: and on the 23rd an eminent goldsmith in Lombard-Street. I could mention others, both at home and abroad, if I did not consider it is of very little use or instruction to the reader, or to the world.
As to publick affairs: On the 7th of this month there will be an insurrection in Dauphine, occasion'd by the oppressions of the people, which will not be quieted in some months.
On the 15th will be a violent storm on the south-east coast of France, which will destroy many of their ships, and some in the very harbour.
The 19th will be famous for the revolt of a whole province or kingdom, excepting one city, by which the affairs of a certain prince in the alliance will take a better face.
May, against common conjectures, will be no very busy month in Europe, but very signal for the death of the Dauphin, which will happen on the 7th, after a short fit of sickness, and grievous torments with the strangury. He dies less lamented by the court than the kingdom.
On the 9th a Mareschal of France will break his leg by a fall from his horse. I have not been able to discover whether he will then die or not.
On the 11th will begin a most important siege, which the eyes of all Europe will be upon: I cannot be more particular: for in relating affairs that so nearly concern the Confederates, and consequently this Kingdom, I am forced to confine myself, for several reasons very obvious to the reader.
On the 15th news will arrive of a very surprizing event, than which nothing could be more unexpected.
On the 19th three noble ladies of this Kingdom will, against all expectation, prove with child, to the great joy of their husbands.
On the 23rd a famous buffoon of the play-house will die a ridiculous death, suitable to his vocation.
June. This month will be distinguish'd at home, by the utter dispersing of those ridiculous deluded enthusiasts, commonly call'd the Prophets; occasion'd chiefly by seeing the time come that many of their prophecies should be fulfill'd, and then finding themselves deceiv'd by contrary events. It is indeed to be admir'd how any deceiver can be so weak, to foretel things near at hand, when a very few months must of necessity discover the impostor to all the world; in this point less prudent than common almanack-makers, who are so wise to wonder in generals, and talk dubiously, and leave to the reader the business of interpreting.
On the 1st of this month a French general will be killed by a random shot of a cannon-ball.
On the 6th a fire will break out in the suburbs of Paris, which will destroy above a thousand houses; and seems to be the foreboding of what will happen, to the surprize of all Europe, about the end of the following month.
On the 10th a great battle will be fought, which will begin at four of the clock in the afternoon; and last till nine at night with great obstinacy, but no very decisive event. I shall not name the place, for the reasons aforesaid; but the commanders on each left wing will be killed. - I see bonfires, and hear the noise of guns for a victory.
On the 14th there will be a false report of the French king's death.
On the 20th Cardinal Portocarero will die of a dysentery, with great suspicion of poison; but the report of his intention to revolt to King Charles, will prove false.
July. The 6th of this month a certain general will, by a glorious action, recover the reputation he lost by former misfortunes.
On the 12th a great commander will die a prisoner in the hands of his enemies.
On the 14th a shameful discovery will be made of a French Jesuit, giving poison to a great foreign general; and when he is put to the torture, will make wonderful discoveries.
In short this will prove a month of great action, if I might have liberty to relate the particulars.
At home, the death of an old famous senator will happen on the 15th at his country-house, worn with age and diseases.
But that which will make this month memorable to all posterity, is the death of the French King, Lewis the fourteenth, after a week's sickness at Marli, which will happen on the 29th, about six o'clock in the evening. It seems to be an effect of the gout in his stomach, followed by a flux. And in three days after Monsieur Chamillard will follow his master, dying suddenly of an appoplexy.
In this month likewise an ambassador will die in London; but I cannot assign the day.
August. The affairs of France will seem to suffer no change for a while under the Duke of Burgundy's administration; but the genius that animated the whole machine being gone, will be the cause of mighty turns and revolutions in the following year. The new King makes yet little change either in the army or the ministry; but the libels against his grandfather, that fly about his very court, give him uneasiness.
I see an express in mighty haste, with joy and wonder in his looks, arriving by break of day on the 26th of this month, having travell'd in three days a prodigious journey by land and sea. In the evening I hear bells and guns, and see the blazing of a thousand bonfires.
A young admiral of noble birth, does likewise this month gain immortal honour by a great achievement.
The affairs of Poland are this month entirely settled: Augustus resigns his pretensions which he had again taken up for some time: Stanislaus is peaceably possess'd of the throne; and the King of Sweden declares for the Emperor.
I cannot omit one particular accident here at home; that near the end of this month much mischief will be done at Bartholomew Fair, by the fall of a booth.
September. This month begins with a very surprizing fit of frosty weather, which will last near twelve days.
The Pope having long languish'd last month, the swellings in his legs breaking, and the flesh mortifying, will die on the 11th instant; and in three weeks time, after a mighty contest, be succeeded by a cardinal of the imperial faction, but native of Tuscany, who is now about sixty-one years old.
The French army acts now wholly on the defensive, strongly fortify'd in their trenches; and the young French King sends overtures for a treaty of peace by the Duke of Mantua; which, because it is a matter of state that concerns us here at home, I shall speak no farther of it.
I shall add but one prediction more, and that in mystical terms, which shall be included in a verse out of Virgil,
Alter erit jam Tethys, et altera quae vehat Argo.
Delectos heroas.
Upon the 25th day of this month, the fulfilling of this prediction will be manifest to every body.
This is the farthest I have proceeded in my calculations for the present year. I do not pretend, that these are all the great events which will happen in this period, but that those I have set down will infallibly come to pass. It will perhaps still be objected, why I have not spoke more particularly of affairs at home, or of the success of our armies abroad, which I might, and could very largely have done; but those in power have wisely discouraged men from meddling in publick concerns, and I was resolv'd by no means to give the least offence. This I will venture to say, That it will be a glorious campaign for the allies, wherein the English forces, both by sea and land, will have their full share of honour: That her Majesty Queen Anne will continue in health and prosperity: And that no ill accident will arrive to any of the chief ministry.
As to the particular events I have mention'd, the readers may judge by the fulfilling of 'em, whether I am on the level with common astrologers; who, with an old paultry cant, and a few pothook for planets, to amuse the vulgar, have, in my opinion, too long been suffer'd to abuse the world: But an honest physician ought not to be despis'd, because there are such things as mountebanks. I hope I have some share of reputation, which I would not willingly forfeit for a frolick or humour: And I believe no gentleman, who reads this paper, will look upon it to be of the same cast or mould with the common scribblers that are every day hawk'd about. My fortune has placed me above the little regard of scribbling for a few pence, which I neither value or want: Therefore let no wise men too hastily condemn this essay, intended for a good design, to cultivate and improve an ancient art, long in disgrace, by having fallen into mean and unskilful hands. A little time will determine whether I have deceived others or myself: and I think it is no very unreasonable request, that men would please to suspend their judgments till then. I was once of the opinion with those who despise all predictions from the stars, till the year 1686, a man of quality shew'd me, written in his album, That the most learned astronomer, Captain H. assured him, he would never believe any thing of the stars' influence, if there were not a great revolution in England in the year 1688. Since that time I began to have other thoughts, and after eighteen years diligent study and application, I think I have no reason to repent of my pains. I shall detain the reader no longer, than to let him know, that the account I design to give of next year's events, shall take in the principal affairs that happen in Europe; and if I be denied the liberty of offering it to my own country, I shall appeal to the learned world, by publishing it in Latin, and giving order to have it printed in Holland.

Recommended reading for Fox ~~News~~ Prolefeed, no?

The Wizard of Bush predicts the future

2008-03-14T17:48:42Z

Bush is feeling so peppy and cheery and Bushy-tailed! And why shouldn't he? He's been right on just about everything! He's a regular Kreskin!

President Bush predicted Monday that voters will replace him with a Republican president who will "keep up the fight" in Iraq. "I'm confident we'll hold the White House in 2008," Bush told donors at the Republican Governors Association annual dinner, which raised a record $10.6 million for GOP gubernatorial candidates.

He must have forgotten to read this. Oh that's right, he doesn't read.

Next, boys and girls, he discusses his understanding of "mentality". Oh, the irony:

"When I say I'm confident, I am so because I understand the mentality of the American people," Bush said. "And I understand the mentality of our candidates. And there's no question in my mind, with your help, 2008 is going to be a great year."
Democratic governors have a 28-22 edge nationally, having regained a majority in 2006 after 12 years of GOP dominance. Eleven seats are up this year.

I wonder who he predicted would win Best Picture.. Norbit*?

"I believe the American people understand that success in Iraq is necessary for the long-term security of the American people," Bush said. "And we will elect somebody to the White House who will keep up the fight to make sure Iraq is secure and free."

That should only take, what, about 100 years?

My prediction? Bush will be remembered as the worst president in U.S. history.

*Jon Stewart at the Academy Awards: “Too often the Academy ignores movies that aren’t good.” (about Norbit)

Effective Forecasting - Assume You Are Wrong

2008-10-18T03:31:32Z

Complete video at: fora.tv

Technology forecaster Paul Saffo discusses the importance of questioning one's own assumptions when predicting future events.

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As part of The Long Now Foundation's Seminars About Long-term Thinking, technology forecaster and strategist Paul Saffo presents Embracing Uncertainty: The Secret to Effective Forecasting.

Paul Saffo is a forecaster and strategist with over two decades experience exploring long-term technological change and its practical impact on business and society. Paul is Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation, as well as the boards of several public and pre-public companies located the United States and abroad. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum, which in the late 1990s named Paul one of its "100 Global Leaders For Tomorrow."

Paul's essays have appeared in numerous publications, including Business 2.0, Fortune, The Harvard Business Review, The Los Angeles Times, Newsweek, The New York Times and the Washington Post and Wired. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University. IFTF is a 30-year old foundation that provides strategic planning and forecasting services to major corporations and government agencies.

Paul currently serves on the Board of the Institute for the Future and the Long Now Foundation. He is also the Chairman of Samsung Science Advisory Board.

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Bush our worst Pres ever: Mike Gravel

2008-10-20T09:29:37Z

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My Predictions for the Iowa Caucus

2008-10-22T15:30:41Z

Why not?

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3.23.2007

2008-10-27T21:31:05Z

The predicion made by Tandem Creations that on 3.23.2007 a huge event will happen. When there was only 666 days left of Goerge Bush's Presidency

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Scooter Libby Case Prediction

2008-10-16T03:31:27Z

The Young Turks: Cenk Uygur, Ben Mankiewicz, and Jill Pike talk about their predictions on the Libby trial and the chances of a Pardon. Watch live from 6-9AM ET on www.theyoungturks.com. Listen from 6-9AM ET on Air America Radio.

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